Coal and renewables both are projected to generate 22% of the total power generation stack in 2022, the US Energy Information Administration said in a Feb. 8 report.

Coal is expected to have a 22% generation share in 2022 and a 21.7% generation share in 2023, down from 22.6% in 2021. Renewables are projected to generate 22% of the total stack in 2022 and 24% in 2023, up from 20% in 2021.

“Increasing renewable generation contributes to our forecast that the share of generation from coal will decline from 23% in 2021 to an average of 22% over the next two years,” EIA said.

The US is estimated to produce 611.6 million st of coal in 2022, up 5.6% from 2021.

The 2022 projection was flat on the month. The 2023 production estimate also was flat on the month at 619.4 million st, up 1.3% from the year-ago period.

Coal exports are projected to be 87.9 million st in 2022 and 91.8 million st in 2023, compared with 86.9 million st in 2021. Nominal average delivered coal prices are expected to fall from $1.97 in 2021 to $1.95 in 2022 and $1.81 in 2023.

Power-sector coal consumption is projected to be 486.9 million st in 2022 and 484.8 million st in 2023, down from 501.1 million st in 2021.

Total consumption, including by petcoke plants and retail, is estimated at 534.3 million st in 2022 and 531.7 million st in 2023, down from 545.5 million st in 2021.

Natural gas generation share is expected at 35.1% in 2022 and 34.2% in 2023, compared with 37.2% in 2021. Henry Hub spot gas prices are forecast to average $3.94/MMBtu in 2022 and $3.77/MMBtu in 2023, down from $4.06/MMBtu in 2021.

Dry gas production is expected at 96.04 Bcf/d in 2022 and 997.55 Bcf/d in 2023, compared with 93.46 Bcf/d in 2021.

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