Exports are making up an increasing share of the demand for U.S. coal, as the nation’s power sector switches to natural gas and renewable energy, according to a recent analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The agency’s short-term outlook projects that U.S. domestic coal consumption this year will be 482 million short tons (one short ton is 2,000 pounds), 29 percent less than it was five years ago. Domestic consumption includes coal used to generate electricity and in industrial processes such as steelmaking.

The rapid change in the country’s energy portfolio reflects the nationwide trend of electric providers shifting away from coal and toward natural gas and renewable sources for electricity. Compared to other power sources, coal-fired electricity in many places in the U.S. has become less cost-effective and emits a significant amount of carbon when burned.

EIA projects that U.S. electric power will make up 73 percent of the demand for U.S. coal in 2024 and 70 percent in 2025, down from 79 percent in 2019. It’s a trajectory welcomed by environmental and climate advocates.

“From a public health perspective, from a climate perspective, and ultimately from a cost perspective and consumer protection standpoint, reducing the amount of coal that’s being consumed domestically is huge,” Jeremy Fisher, a senior strategy and technical adviser for the Sierra Club, said in an interview.

That decreasing domestic consumption means the nation’s coal exports is making up a larger and larger slice of the pie. EIA expects exports to reach 19 percent of total demand of U.S. coal in 2024 and then 21 percent the following year. In 2029, that share was 14 percent.

“The pickup in exports reflects more demand for U.S. coal in foreign markets,” EIA said in its brief, “especially in Asia where coal consumption was on track to hit record levels in 2023.”

Fisher said a rise in geopolitical tensions spurred primary export markets — which include India, South Korea, Japan and parts of Europe — to turn to U.S. coal.

“When we saw Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, paired with a lot of uncertainty about international gas prices and the availability of gas that was being used for electric generation, the price available to exporters of energy really jumped through the roof,” Fisher said.

EIA’s brief also pointed to embargoes of Russian coal, after which it says U.S. coal exporters “grabbed a small share of the growing market” in parts of Europe and Asia.

That helped U.S. coal exports rise to 100 million short tons in 2023, according to EIA, which based the estimate on data from January to October. The agency predicts U.S. coal exports will fall to 91 million short tons in 2024 but rise again to 95 million short tons in 2025.

America’s Power, an advocate of the U.S. coal fleet, did not respond to a request for comment. But the group has argued that coal retirements are increasing the risk of electricity shortages.

Total demand for U.S. coal — which includes domestic demand and exports — has been on a downward trend. EIA data showed that demand declined to 524 million short tons in 2023 from 601 million short tons in 2022.

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